On Thursday (October 17), during the Asian market session, the spot gold price maintained a rebound trend, with the gold price currently trading near $2680 per ounce, and earlier the gold price approached $2685 per ounce. FXStreet analyst Haresh Menghani wrote on Thursday, analyzing the technical trend of gold prices.

During the Asian session on Thursday, gold prices rose for the third consecutive day and tested the historical high again. The expectation of interest rate cuts by major central banks, as well as geopolitical risks triggered by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, are key factors driving funds towards gold.

According to informed sources, Israel's plan to respond to Iran's attack on October 1st is ready, which increases the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions and the possibility of a full-scale war in the Middle East.

Menghani added that, at the same time, more and more people believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to moderately cut interest rates next year, keeping the dollar near its highest level since early August. This, coupled with a positive risk tone, has prevented traders from making new bullish bets on safe-haven gold prices and limited the increase in gold prices. Traders are now focusing on US macroeconomic data in the hope of gaining some momentum later in the North American market.

Spot gold closed up $10.99 on Wednesday, a gain of 0.41%, at $2673.59 per ounce. The gold price once soared to $2685.36 per ounce during the session, very close to the historical high of $2685.58 per ounce set on September 26.

Menghani pointed out that in the early North American session on Thursday, traders will take cues from US economic data - including the release of retail sales, weekly initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision may inject volatility into the market and provide some meaningful momentum for safe-haven gold, allowing traders to seize short-term opportunities.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for September.

Economists expect that the US retail sales growth rate for September is expected to increase by 0.3%, after rising by 0.1% in August.

The US retail sales data is known as the "scary data" because it usually has a significant impact on the financial market and is likely to affect the trend of assets such as the dollar and gold.

Analysts pointed out that if the US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the dollar is expected to strengthen, thereby hitting gold prices; on the other hand, a retail sales report that is weaker than expected is expected to stimulate gold prices to continue to strengthen.At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the U.S. seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12th will be released, with an expected figure of 260,000, following the previous week's 258,000.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the U.S. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for October will be released, with an expected increase from 1.7 to 3.0.

Latest Technical Outlook for Gold

Menghani stated that, from a technical perspective, a sustained positive trend could push the price of gold towards the significant threshold of $2,700 per ounce. Subsequent buying interest would be seen by bullish traders as a new catalyst, paving the way for the continuation of the upward trend that has been in place for several months.

Menghani noted that the oscillators on the daily chart remain in the positive territory, still far from the overbought area, a fact that reinforces the constructive outlook for gold prices.

On the other hand, Menghani added that the $2,662-$2,660 per ounce price range now appears to form short-term support, followed by the $2,647-$2,646 per ounce range. If the price of gold breaks below the latter, it could trigger some technical selling and drag the price down to the $2,630 per ounce support level, before heading towards the vicinity of $2,600 per ounce.